Overview
According to the April 2002 update of the Asia Economic Monitor (see www.aric.adb.org. for full report) East Asia is moving from last year's sharp and synchronised economic slowdown to a faster-than-expected, but moderate, rebound.
Last year, East Asia experienced its second major external shock in half a decade. A synchronised slowdown in the industrial countries and the collapse of the IT industry worldwide led to a significant drop in demand for the region's exports. Many countries in the region responded with fiscal stimulus measures and interest rate reductions. These measures supported domestic demand and cushioned the external shock somewhat. Yet, the region posted its second slowest growth in decades.
During the 1997-1998 financial crisis, the countries with open capital accounts were the most affected. By contrast, since last year's shock was primarily one of export demand countries more open to international trade slowed more than others.
In the aftermath of the 11 September attacks on the US, there was a consensus that East Asia's economic slowdown would deepen, with the rebound occurring some time in the middle of this year. The December 2001 issue of Asia Economic Monitor reflected this view. Global and regional developments since then, however, have prompted greater optimism toward the region's immediate economic prospects:
- Economic fallout from 11 September has, so far, turned out to be less disruptive than originally feared;
- The US economy seems to have bottomed out and appears to be recovering faster than expected.
For most of the more open and globally-integrated East Asian countries, these developments bring good news, with signs starting to emerge that last year's economic slowdown in East Asia has perhaps also bottomed out:
- Exports are showing signs of picking up because of a steady improvement in world electronics demand since November last year.
- Domestic demand, which cushioned the slowdown somewhat last year, seems to be strengthening in several countries;
- Reflecting these trends growth slowdown in aggregate GDP as well as manufacturing appears to have stabilised in the last quarter of 2001 in several countries;
- Stock markets have rebounded significantly since the fourth quarter of last year. In recent months, rentals and vacancy rates have also firmed up in several Asian cities.
The main message of this report is that East Asia is moving from last year's sharp and synchronised economic slowdown to a faster-than-expected but moderate rebound.
Despite this, for four of the five crisis-affected countries (except Korea), the five years since the 1997 financial crisis are effectively a lost half decade in terms of improvements in per capita incomes.
The London-based Consensus Economics Inc. now projects East Asia's average growth to reach 5.2 per cent in 2002, an improvement on its forecast of 4.7 per cent issued in December. Building on this year's rebound, East Asia's growth will strengthen to more than 6 per cent in 2003.
To ensure sustained rapid growth and resilience against external shocks, East Asian countries need to work towards achieving not only sound macroeconomic fundamentals but also sound structural fundamentals. Key to attaining these objectives is expeditious completion of the remaining agenda of financial and corporate sector reforms and restructuring. Reforms at the national level need to be complemented by further strengthening of ongoing initiatives to promote greater monetary and financial cooperation at the regional level.
Member institutes
Les Pickett of AHRI, Australia, updated members that the institute was undergoing another stage in its planned transition and a series of meetings were currently being held with State presidents to develop an operational plan to continue the transfer of the professional activities of AHRI back to the membership. Les also reported that he was currently working on a professional development programme, examination scheme and professional grading process for AHRI and would circulate details later this year.
Annemarie de Castro of HRINZ (New Zealand) shared briefly the professional scheme currently provided. Unlike the UK or US system, the scheme focuses on a demonstration of competency as well as education and experience. A judging panel comprising senior members representing various business sectors and geographical areas is in place to conduct the assessment via the Internet. Any general members with a wish to acquire the next level of membership are required to go through the scheme.
Federation news
Consideration is currently being given to establishing a mechanism to obtain information about best practices and emerging trends in HR in the region. This will be an agenda item for the next meeting of Council.
It appears that skill shortages, retention of people with competencies in demand, compensation and remuneration, performance management, succession planning, change management, leadership and management development will continue to he high priorities for HR people, along with increasing pressure to demonstrate how HR is adding value to organisations.
Les Pickett is to prepare a series of short questionnaires that will provide high level feedback on current practices in areas such as succession planning and performance management.
Membership
New presidents/representatives from national associations:
Chatphong Wongsuk, Vice President of PMAT (Thailand), and
Ernesto G Espinosa, President of PMAP (Philippines) to join the team.
P O Mak (HKIHRM) reported that he had been communicating with the parties in mainland China and Taiwan over the past months. For Taiwan, the membership of the HRDA was formally terminated in January 2002 after its lack of contribution and of action to pay the outstanding dues for 1999/2000, 2000/2001 and 2001/2002 despite repeated reminders. To fill the vacancy, P O was communicating with another HR institute in Taiwan. Simultaneously, he was approaching our China observer “member” to explore the feasibility of having both China and the Taiwan institute to join as full members of APFHRM. The bottom line for China, according to P O, was that there should only be one organization, as per APEC/PECC practice and current international protocol, to represent the country. As such, the Taiwan institute had to adjust its name as appropriate in order to adhere to the above principle. While there were already some forms of communication between China and Taiwan, the process would take time. P O reminded members that the issue was very sensitive and would appreciate patience of the team. He would keep members updated on the matter.
New officers
President and 1st Delegate to WFPMA - Les Pickett of AHRI
Vice Presidents – Chatphong Wongsuk of PMAT, Thailand and Jayanta Jayaratne of
IPMSL, Sri Lanka
Secretary and Treasurer – P O Mak of IHRM, Hong Kong
2nd Delegate to WFPMA – Teddy Kharsadi of ISHRM, Indonesia
Recent and forthcoming activities
National conferences:
PMAT (Thailand), Mar 25 and Oct
MIHRM (Malaysia): May 17-18
IPMSL (Sri Lanka): May 17-18
AHRI (Australia) : May 19-22
WFPMA (Mexico): May 27 - 29
JSHRM (Indonesia): Aug/Sep
HRINZ (New Zealand): Sep 11-13
PMAP (Philippines): Sep 28-30
HKIHRM (HK): Nov 17-18
Table of statutory employee benefits (see attached)
Promotion of WC2004 by SHRI at Mexico WC2002
Next APFHRM meeting, Sep 26-29, 2002, Taiwan
Major changes in federation constitution:
- Regional groups – Japan being included in “East Asia” region
- Meeting interval established - the federation delegates assembly and council should meet twice a year in March and October.
- Appendix 1 added to constitution
- Membership year defined as July 1 current year to June 30 in the next.
- Membership fee for affiliates is 50% (US$150) of the fee charged to a full member.
- treasurer to send membership fee invoices in October each year.
